Crime Prevention through Prediction
Prediction of crime represents a hard but increasingly popular task with the rise of new technologies and scientific forecasting methods. One factor in the forecasting of crime concerns the motto that the past is the finest judgeof the future, which involves extrapolation of contemporary and past trends on upcoming events. This model engages mathematical schemes describing the behavior of observed statistics in the past to achieve forecasts of future trends. This is probable through time-series inquiry of trends in crime towards the future. Crime statistics from police and reports by victims provide the source of quantitative time-series data for use in forecasting. Modelling involves description of causal order of variables and forecast of their relationships. Nevertheless, simple extrapolation of past trends is an unreliable method in prediction, and time-series models have to consider broader contexts of crime to maximize validity in crime prediction (Lab, 2016).
Prediction needs to allow for prevalent social, political, technological, and economic variability with influence on crime to be more accurate. Prediction models should identify and forecast the nature and scope of different factors that shall affect crime and abuse in future. The most essential aspect of the models concerns difficulty in identifying, expecting, and factoring in the effects of expected variables in future crime trends. At the same time, the models ought to identify new targets for crime activity in keeping pace with transitions in social mores and innovations in technology (Lab, 2016).
Targeting repeat victimization is sensible in crime prevention because it represents an excellent predictor. Victimization recurs highly in different areas and scopes of life, including personally and in enterprises. Focus on repeat victimization represents acompetent strategy in allocating limited crime prevention resources. Relevant to all crimes with targets, focus on repeat victimization empowers policing to achieve tangible and constructive results to assist crime victims and orients policing more greatly towards victims (Lab, 2016). It allows effective detection of organized crime and can influence positive feedback from victims.
Lab, S. (2016). Crime Prevention: Approaches, Practices, and Evaluations. London, UK: Routledge